Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 1.351031 1.530787 1.721128 1.937231 2.175307 2.429114 2.719675
2025-01-19 1.072978 1.313485 1.584126 1.909535 2.288375 2.713663 3.225279
2025-01-26 0.904909 1.191101 1.531804 1.963260 2.490687 3.109873 3.886779
2025-02-02 0.761818 1.077786 1.475309 2.004430 2.681640 3.510188 4.590281
2025-02-09 0.633741 0.964605 1.404514 2.019304 2.841608 3.887610 5.300397
2025-02-16 0.530310 0.868495 1.343351 2.039027 3.009254 4.289074 6.074971
2025-02-23 0.427374 0.756132 1.244705 1.995695 3.087783 4.580752 6.731047
2025-03-02 0.334421 0.642142 1.127340 1.910640 3.098447 4.780506 7.278868
2025-03-09 0.277245 0.575101 1.071298 1.908918 3.227553 5.153699 8.092187
2025-03-16 0.225347 0.506737 1.002792 1.878721 3.309804 5.464545 8.837871
2025-03-23 0.196515 0.474959 0.990887 1.938022 3.535055 6.001640 9.947009
2025-03-30 0.157455 0.414314 0.918544 1.886085 3.576250 6.261244 10.658256
2025-04-06 0.128319 0.368751 0.869336 1.873263 3.688981 6.653283 11.618617
2025-04-13 0.102892 0.324567 0.815164 1.844284 3.771409 7.003658 12.538833
2025-04-20 0.088587 0.303230 0.803910 1.894806 3.997567 7.603566 13.891075
2025-04-27 0.075526 0.281302 0.787625 1.933408 4.205779 8.187861 15.253166
2025-05-04 0.062962 0.256652 0.760694 1.946728 4.368039 8.704512 16.533645
2025-05-11 0.052736 0.235369 0.737616 1.964956 4.540882 9.250241 17.892591
2025-05-18 0.041590 0.206498 0.689756 1.922215 4.589848 9.578860 18.899501
2025-05-25 0.031239 0.175254 0.628353 1.839211 4.548642 9.739985 19.623648
2025-06-01 0.025476 0.158630 0.603093 1.837094 4.673159 10.212939 20.918722
2025-06-08 0.020074 0.140397 0.568735 1.807485 4.735884 10.572394 22.027755
2025-06-15 0.017522 0.133936 0.568783 1.864630 4.991413 11.314396 23.863042